Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
